On the Fed, it's tough to view the current set-up of still elevated printed inflation and a Fed on hold as all that protective. We glean from this enough to validate the move back above 5% on the 10yr. On the ECB, forwa…
Read more →A core bond allocation traditionally has been a key element of a diversified portfolio. High-quality bonds generate regular income and, importantly, can be a stabilizing force when riskier assets come under pressure (Fi…
Read more →From better fiscal headroom to surprise income tax hikes, this is how UK Chancellor John Healey's first budget could surprise investors
Read more →Barring a Brazilian-style election surprise, the Fed should leave rates unchanged. It seems the US 10yr is waiting to tick this off before it deviates too much from 5%. Meanwhile, the UK 10yr yield should ease lower aft…
Read more →This past weekend, Adam Taggart and I discussed what happens to Treasury bond yields when the United States enters a military conflict. The conventional wisdom is reflexive and tidy. A conflict triggers a flight to safe…
Read more →Imagine someone looking into their crystal ball and telling you at the beginning of October that the coming September CPI data would be higher than expected, and producer prices (PPI) would rise 1.3% for the month, well…
Read more →The RBA deputy governor has identified inflation as the "one big problem" still facing Australia's economy.
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Read more →Millions of Americans will move forward with home purchases this year, despite mortgage rates that won’t budge from their perch above 6% and home prices that continue to break records. Some of these buyers are banking o…
Read more →The Consumer Price Index hit 3.7% in September – the latest sign that inflation remains a problem that isn't going away.
Read more →More than 16 years after the eurozone debt crisis erupted, France's fiscal woes are reviving uncomfortable memories
Read more →The size and persistence of inflation post-COVID-19 was among the largest problems the U.S. economy has faced in decades. The rise in house prices was a major contributor to this inflationary episode. Understanding this…
Read more →With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, buying bonds at 5% is the first real alternative that stock investors have had in nearly two decades.
Read more →Most investors are still focused on the stock market, especially technology and AI stocks. But over the past few days, the more interesting move has been happening in bonds. U.S. Treasury yields have moved sharply highe…
Read more →Crude oil prices jumped and stock prices fell after President Trump declared an end to the fragile ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military attacked dozens of targets along the Iranian coastline overnight, i…
Read more →📘 Why Manual Forex Trading Is Officially Dead — And AI Will Bury It in 2026 ________________________________________ 1. 🚨 Executive Summary Manual FX trading is not merely declining—it is entering its terminal phase. As…
Read more →The Relationship Every Gold Trader Should Understand Why Falling Real Yields Continue to Be One of Gold's Most Powerful Bullish Catalysts "Gold does not compete with stocks. Gold does not compete with bonds. Gold compet…
Read more →Rising US long-term interest rates have become the defining issue in global financial markets. But why have they climbed so fast? Yields have now surpassed the expected return on stocks for the first time in 20 months —…
Read more →(Kitco News) – Gold prices saw another choppy week, as renewed Middle East uncertainty and bargain-hunting failed to offset pressure from elevated Treasury yields, a resilient U.S. dollar, and fresh evidence that the Fe…
Read more →Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter?
Read more →There is an FX sting in the tail as well. If Japanese investors are trimming exposure to European debt, EUR/JPY starts to matter as more than a conventional rate-spread trade. It becomes a possible capital-flow tell, wh…
Read more →It is a privilege to be here in Tallinn to deliver this lecture in memory of Professor Ragnar Nurkse. Widely regarded as one of the intellectual fathers of the post-war Bretton Woods system, his work showed how external…
Read more →Three themes have been shaping portfolios through the summer: politics; bond yields; and (inevitably) AI.
Read more →Actions by advanced economies to limit rising government bond yields are unlikely to be durable without additional policy change or a material economic slowdown—but the first is unlikely and the second is unwanted.
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