Rates Outlook: An Uneasy Calm

The Federal Reserve's interest rate lift-off in December did little to disturb the uneasy calm that had reigned in financial markets in late 2015. But the new year had a turbulent start, featuring one of the worst stock…

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Crowded Out: The AI Boom Is Reshaping Bond Markets

Southeast Asia's trade-oriented economies are facing a confluence of global trade shocks. The Trump administration in the United States has imposed punitive tariffs while depressed domestic demand in China has led to a …

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3% Real TIPS Yields: Boring but Valuable

Investors face a challenging environment during the second half of 2022, needing to navigate rising interest rates, high inflation and resurfacing geopolitical risks. In the near term, gold will likely remain reactive t…

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Long-End Risks, ECB Conviction and UK Data Tests

Lower Fed hike odds have calmed front-end USD rates, but long-end Treasuries remain vulnerable to higher real yields, fiscal supply pressure and yen spillovers. In Europe, markets remain focused on a September ECB hike,…

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The Bond Market Is Sending Gold a Debt Warning

In today’s update: US fiscal pressure and gold prices are moving in lockstep today — with the Fed frozen at 3.50–3.75%, Treasury’s own debt buyers flagging a $1.3 trillion shortfall, and services inflation stuck at a fo…

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Market Optimism Helps Hawkish Bias

Gold is recouping losses above $4,300 in Thursday’s Asian session as the dust settles in the aftermath of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision and the signing of the US-Iran peace deal.

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